IATA: air cargo demand rose by 3.2 percent in January 2025

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its global air cargo data for January 2025, noting growth of 3.2 percent in the first month of the year.

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 3.2 percent compared to January 2024 levels, marking an 18th consecutive month of growth.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 6.8% compared to January 2024.

According to IATA director-general Willie Walsh: “January marked 18 consecutive months of growth for air cargo, but the month’s 3.2 percent year-on-year growth is a moderation from double-digit peaks in 2024. Similarly, yields, while still above January 2024 levels, saw a 9.9 percent decline from December as cargo load factors also declined by an average of 1.5 percentage points.”

While external factors such as trade growth, declining fuel costs and expanding e-commerce remain positive for air cargo, Walsh pointed out that it is important to closely watch the evolution of market conditions at this time. 

In particular, the wild card is the potential for tariff-driven trade policies from the current US administration.

Factors considered in January

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted, namely:

• Year-on-year, industrial production rose 2.6 percent in December. Global goods trade grew for a ninth consecutive month, reporting a 3.3 percent increase in December;
• The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-mark for January, indicating growth. At 50.62, this was the highest reading since July 2024. The PMI for new export orders rose to 49.37, remaining just shy of the 50-mark, which is the growth threshold; and
• In January, consumer inflation in the US and in Europe both rose by 0.1 percentage point to three percent and 2.8 percent respectively. Chinese consumer inflation rebounded to 0.5 percent in January, after progressively falling to 0.1 percent in the previous four months.

Regional performance in January 2025

• Asia-Pacific airlines saw 7.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in January. Capacity increased by 10.9% year-on-year.
• North American carriers saw 5.3% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in January. Capacity increased by 7.5% year-on-year.
• European carriers saw 1.3% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in January. Capacity increased 3.5% year-on-year
• Middle Eastern carriers saw 8.4% year-on-year demand decrease for air cargo in January, the slowest among the regions. Capacity decreased by 1.2% year-on-year.
• Latin American carriers saw an 11.2% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in January, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased 10.6% year-on-year.
• African airlines saw a 3.4% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in January. Capacity increased by 5.4% year-on-year. 

With regard to trade lane growth, international routes experienced growth in January. 

At the same time, airlines are benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping.